My Ashes Preview: Prediction, Ones To Watch, And More Generic Stuff

So, the time has come.

The following five matches (which will precede a further five in Australia) have been eagerly anticipated for a long time. The match-up of the two opposing teams has been taken apart, examined, analysed, and put back together again. And now, in a town in the Midlands home to Robin Hood, the Ashes will begin at last.

Now I will turn my eye to what’s going to occur over the next few months.

Prediction

The important bit. What do I reckon is going to be the result?

3-1. To England.

In case you hadn’t guessed.

That’s for the home bit anyway, although you can probably double it for the double-series result.

I’ve been careful not to be too over-optimistic. Ian Botham offered no respect for the English weather in predicting a 10-0 double whitewash, dished out by the English. I think the Aussies look dangerous. Their seam quality is good, and they have a few über-dangerous bastmen.

Ones To Watch

England:

• Alastair Cook – Can the captain become an England legend by repeating the heroics of India?
• Joe Root – I wonder if the youngster will continue to deal with immense pressure…
• Jonny Bairstow – Another youngster, but this one needs more, to get a foothold and then cement it.
• Graeme Swann – The English spinner could be the difference, Australia do not have a top-quality spinner, methinks.
• James Anderson – Clearly the best seamer between the two sides.

Australia:

• Shane Watson – The Aussie all-rounder has moved up and down the order but has the potential to be a hero opening.
• Michael Clarke – Obviously Australia’s best batsman, he could really do damage. He has the X-Factor
• Peter Siddle – Grinding mental strength.
• Mitchell Starc – I like the look of this fast-bowler.

Flops

England:

• Ian Bell – The finesse-player has not really excelled enough recently.
• Jonny Bairstow – I don’t think this is quite his time.
• Steven Finn – Her brings pace but with shaky accuracy and economy.

Australia:

To be honest I don’t know enough about the Aussies to tell.

Excited?

I am.

Joe

 

 

False Warm-Up Only Confirms Positions

Hello again after my mini sabbatical. I now intend to cut down to about one post a week, a more sustainable amount. Maybe when football comes back I’ll increase.

So far, from what we’ve seen of England’s rather pathetic not-quite-warm-up,-more-like-freeze-up-match against Essex, so good.

In ideal batting conditions, the toss-winning Essex captain Ravi Bopara put England in in a clearly set up decision to give England batting practice. Indeed, this “match” barely deserves its name, for there is surely no competitiveness. England captain Alastair Cook was on a stand of 161 with Jonathan Trott when they both retired.

Still this practice session has pretty much cemented the largely expected line-up (Cook/Root/Trott/Pietersen/Bell/Bairstow/Prior/Broad/Swann/Anderson/Finn) for the first Test against Australia at Trent Bridge 8 days from now.

To be honest, the only questions were over who would partner Cook as an opener, subsequently who would play at six, and who would be the third component of England’s seam attack.

In the first section, Joe Root has played well with bat despite not managing huge totals, while his off-breaks (though generally irrelevant – I’d still pick him if he went for twenty an over) have caused havoc with the Essex batsmen.

Jonny Bairstow similarly scored at agood rate whilst not managing to strike a huge total. However, I don’t see him as being under a huge amount of pressure as the only real alternative at the problem position six is surely Ravi Bopara, England’s opponent, after his Champions Trophy heroics with bat, ball, and hand.

But Ravi is not in the squad.

And as for the final pace bowler, there was little doubt anyway, but Steven Finn’s decent figures of 22-7-64-3. Finn is largely in the England team for wicket-taking (which he managed anyway) but Finn managed 7 maidens (more than anyone in this match) and a respectable run-rate of about 2.9.

Bresnan may have hit a century, but as I said with Root, your specialist subject is what matters.

Bresnan even said the same thing himself.

Joe

England Cannot Afford Slow Pace

I start my title for today with the same three words as I did my last post.

Both are about cricket.

And, worryingly, both are about England.

The Three Lions’ strategy in the Champions Trophy – and indeed in all ODIs – is pretty clear: score steadily for 35 – 40 overs, keeping wickets in hand, then smash it out of the ground in the last ten.

I think this is flawed on a number of counts.

First, it is rather unreliable. England possess only two real biffers at the moment: Eoin Morgan and Jos Buttler (although Kevin Pietersen will fit into this role on his return from injury). Neither are consistent. And if neither show up England find themselves with a rather low score.

Secondly, it is too one-dimensional. There is no Plan B, or no evident one anyway.

And finally, even when it does show up, it still isn’t really good enough. A really top score for England with this strategy is 300, which often won’t be good enough to beat a team like South Africa, who England face in the CT’s semi-finals tomorrow, or India.

I would suggest a move to a more constant scoring rate, along with my previously stated changed line-up.

England need a boundary an over really or the singles equivalent anyway. That way their players can develop a better all round game, while also giving a decent platform to work of if the biffers do fail.

And my line-up offers players with the potential to uphold this strategy, in the right order.

Joe

England Cannot Afford Fifth Bowler

In a post last week I said that all-rounders are pointless and I still sort of agree with that. In an ideal team, with the batting in top order, I think there is no need for an all-rounder, and five bowlers should be played.

But England’s batting is a problem, and their bowling is not.

At the moment I think the Three Lions need seven batsmen to get through their overs against a top team. In the long term though, I think England should be going for a five-man attack.

Ravi Bopara is the man that has convinced me all-rounders have some use.

I never thought I’d say (or write) those words. It is not unfair to say that I have not been one of the admittedly few supporters of that wily old man Ravi.

But in England’s last couple of matches he has looked impressive to me and fairly assured, oddly enough.

His innings at the rear end of England’s batting against Australia, though unimportant in the end, ensured England got a decent score.

And his bowling really isn’t that shabby. I love when medium pacers bowl. It makes me feel like everyone refused to bowl for England so I had to, and then I concede about five wides, but my final ball bowls the star batter!

A bit of rambling there, but it makes me happy.

Anyway, my general point is that for the Champions Trophy England should play four bowlers plus Joe Root and Ravi Bopara, but afterwards in ODIs they should play five.

Joe

England Need X Factor

I think, recently, England have often looked rather toothless in attack.

They have relied too heavily on lucky breaks, set pieces and poor defending for goals.

Now I think it is OK for an international team to score one or even no goals a game all the time but only as long as all three of the following conditions are filled.

1. No goals are conceded.
2. The opponents are top-class.
3. A draw is not the end of the world, e.g a knock-out competition.

The major problem for England’s attacking forces is simply a lack of creative talent, but the only way that can be solved is through a lengthy youth development process being employed and, though of course that should happen, it will be along time until the rewards are being reaped of it.

So I offer what I think England should do right now; what I would do if I was Roy Hodgson.

First off, I agree with Gary Lineker.

Two lines of four, particularly in international football, is a step back. The only occasions when a 4-4-1-1 (never 4-4-2) should be used is against vastly superior opposition, such as Spain, when victory through attacking play is all but impossible for a team like England.

Otherwise, I think England should jump into the future and use a 4-2-3-1 formation, as so:

Hart

Johnson Jones Cahill Cole

Gerrard Wilshere

Walcott Rooney Young

Defoe

Secondly, I would try to instil a culture of total football: when all positions interchange.

I think there is often too much rigidity in this England team. I would suggest movement in particular in the attacking quartet.

Thirdly, shooting practice.

I believe we have seem too much caution from many English players to shoot when any distance from goal.

We have seemed obsessed to intricately engineer the ball into the goal – the players have seemed afraid to shoot. Take a hit!

Finally, balls in the box, and men in the box.

This may sound like a step back to even my previous steps forward, but I really think it isn’t.

Again, I think England have been too reluctant, this time to cross the ball. As I said, they seem to want to pass the ball into the net, and when they finally do cross the ball, there is only little Jermain Defoe in the middle.

Now, I like Defoe, but his forte is not heading, it is getting into the right positions and finishing with the foot. There should be at least three people attacking every ball in.

My lesson, may it be learnt.

Joe

England Need An ODI Revolution

First of all, a quick welcome back after my May holiday.

But now there is business.

In the ODI series against New Zealand so far – admittedly not the mot important series – England have been fairly pathetic.

But I am not going to pass this by as a simple, momentary lapse in concentration with minds more focused on the Champions Trophy. No.

I think the two performances are proof of deep fissures in this England ODI side.

Although injuries give the bowling some pardon, the English batting should take a huge amount of criticism. So far, it has exhibited the kind of poor shot selection which has become England’s bane throughout the formats recently.

Players have seemed too desperate to score quickly that they have forgotten to stay in. Indeed, England excelled in terms of run-rate in the most recent game against NZ. At the point when they were bowled out by the Kiwis, England had amassed more runs than NZ had at the same time.

The promise this shows makes the loss all the more disappointing.

I blame this to being toned into a ‘T20’ kind of mode, and in part I blame this to the coach selection. I think there should be separate 50 and 20 over coaches, if just to help the players mentally.

So my solution to the batting problem is the above, but also a changing in batting personnel and order. Here is my proposed England batting line-up (this includes KP’s injury).

Alaistair Cook

Ian Bell

Jonathan Trott

Eoin Morgan

Joe Root

Matt Prior

My explanation for this I will attempt to fit into a few points.

Big-hitters must be alternated. Of course, the ideal batting set-up in the middle, especially in limited-overs,  is to have one man anchoring and amassing runs via singles, twos and threes, while another man – or perhaps a succession of men – hit the bowlers around and out of the park.

All rounders are pointless. I really think there is no use for an all-rounder, especially with a five-man bowling attack in force. This is reinforced by England’s current lack of in-form, quality all-rounders; none of Samit Patel, Chris Woakes and Ravi Bopara really inspire the imagination. If you play fifty overs, that suits perfectly – five bowlers bowling ten overs each. And if one really messes up, you always have Root and Trott to turn to.

Prior must play. When the best wicketkeeper/batsman is available to you – and one with a ridiculously high run-rate in Tests, good skills with the gloves and a talent for leadership – you do not leave him out of ODIs. Especially when you consider the alternatives: Jonny Bairstow and Jos Buttler (unrefined, weak handling and unreliable batting) and Craig Kieswetter (majorly out of form).

And now I turn to bowling.

It was really poor against New Zealand.

Jade Dernbach and Chris Woakes leaked runs like a colander, while wickets were sorely missed from Tim Bresnan.

I think the main problem for England here is depth.

With Broad and Finn out, England look crippled, not only bowling, but as a side in the whole.

But this is an unrepairable issue, so I turn to another main problem.

I think the England selectors have given Dernbach and Woakes too many chances.

They cannot afford to carry men.

Even an unproven player like Stuart Meaker, Boyd Rankin and so on would be a better alternative to that troublesome duo.

I am troubled.

Joe

Pietersen Will Be Sorely Missed

Today the news came out that Kevin Pietersen, the England and Surrey star batsman, will not be available for the return New Zealand Test series due to injury.

I think this is just about the worst loss England could face, perhaps after Alastair Cook, Graeme Swann (who just happens to be missing too) and James Anderson.

Perhaps.

Kevin Pietersen is one of, if not the best Test batsmen in the world at what he does: fast, fast hitting.

And he is one of only a few English batsmen capable of it.

In this current team, who else is there that can score quickly?

Well, Ian Bell (sort of), and Matt Prior.

And Jonny Bairstow who will most likely replace Pietersen.

And Jonny Bairstow is the only person there who is not a kind-of, or has another job to do.

The point is, Kevin Pietersen is the only established big-hitter England have.

So losing him is bad.

Very bad.

Joe

Montenegro Draw Asks Questions Of Hodgson

Damn!

Even thinking back at it, it is very annoying.

How did manage to lose their superiority, in play and in scoreline.

It was all going so well. Rooney struck for England in the sixth minute, following a series of fine English chances, but even then the match began to fall apart.

England just… Set back.

I do not start to blame England manager Roy Hodgson now though. Here I blame the players.

What I see as a mistake here is made all the more infuriating by the fact that the cracks were papered over by the talented passing.

However, as I see it, England managed nothing more than some keep-ball in the first half; merely nullifying their opponents, Montenegro, where they should have been making the most of the Montenegrin ineptitude, and the fine English possession, by scoring a bag-ful of goals.

Half-time came around; the potential turning point of any game, as we have been taught time and time again.

This match is a prime example, and here I blame Hodgson.

This is where any manager should have snapped into action, making sure the English players knew they had done pretty well, but emphasising that they were not playing an easy match. Montenegro are an excellent team.

He should have told the players to push on, not sit back, and score the goals they really should have taken in the first half.

And for all I know this did occur. Maybe I’m wrong.

But on the evidence of the second half, I argue I am not.

From the moment the whistle was blew to indicate the start of the second half, England were out of the match.

The possession was low, and the lack of creativity from the end of the first half continued.

And worst of all, they let Montenegro back into the game.

The door should have been shut, locked, and bolted several times. But it was only leaning to, and Montenegro opened it wide and strolled back.

The second half was the very opposite to the first half.

Montenegro created, dominated…

But still Hodgson could have stepped in.

England were still in front, but it was obvious that Montenegro had to score.

And anyone could see the simple solution to this: bring on a sub.

But Hodgson waited…

And waited…

Until finally, Montenegro scored, and it was too late.

Hodgson just seemed to be encouraging these annoying, dull anti-football tactics, that really don’t pay.

Recent times anti-football hasn’t worked for England:

• Vs Italy
• Vs Poland
• Vs Ukraine
• Vs Montenegro

Humph!

Joe

Great Escape Makes Series Draw All The More Frustrating

Today (and yesterday), England did a fantastic, quite miraculous job of batting throughout the day a few wickets down.

Ian Bell, Stuart Broad and Matt Prior (as always) excelled, as the latter made a century and the former a half-century.

However, their valiance did nothing but save England from the embarrassment that would come with a series defeat (or indeed any defeat) against such a team as New Zealand.

This I find very annoying.

VERY annoying.

Not to have won a single Test, against New Zealand?

Grrr.

I have to say the main positive of the day was Matt Prior.

I have said it before, and I will say it again: he is wasted at seven!

Furthermore, I have come to the conclusion that Matt Prior is England’s most reliable batsman.

He never lets England down.

Ever.

He is fantastic as a keeper, and bats well in all conditions.

He is, without a doubt, the best wicketkeeper-batsman in the world.

Joe

What Did England Vs San Marino Teach Us?

What seems like an age ago, on Friday, England totally demolished San Marino, with all eight goals of the night going to the Three Lions. Here I look back at that match’s events, and attempt to take a few conclusions.

1. We English arenot as polite as we think. As these twitter posts show, ITV’s coverage of the match was far from respectful, and really rather patronising.
2. We English are as polite as we think. This patronising even went as far as England players offering others goals. Exhibit A: Frank Lampard offering Wayne Rooney penalty duties. What makes it more comical is the facts that Rooney declined, and that he later scored anyway. However, Defoe ruined it by scoring two while elsewhere the goals were one apiece.
3. Ashley Young can have an England future. Ashley Young, who has often been doubted for England, scored a fantastic goal on Friday and excelled throughout.
4. Cole does not have long left. A few years ago, Ashley Cole (who was rested on Friday) not being the England full-back would seem unfeasible. But against San Marino, Leighton Baines was fantastic down the left and was arguably the man of the match. The clock is ticking.

Joe